GENEVA, Switzerland – Resilient growth continues despite policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Barring major shocks in the final months of the year, global trade is on track to surpass its 2024 record.
Global trade is set to reach new record levels in 2025 as resilient growth continues despite policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, according to a new report from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The value of global trade rose by about $500 billion in the first half of 2025. In the second quarter alone, it grew by 2.5 percent quarter over quarter, with momentum expected to persist through the third. Goods and services both expanded strongly, with services rebounding after a first-quarter contraction.
Developing economies led the expansion, supported by rising South–South trade – trade between developing countries – while weaker United States imports weighed on the global average.
Barring major shocks in the final months of the year, the total value of global trade is projected to surpass its 2024 record.
Manufacturing drives growth
Manufacturing remained the main engine of trade growth in the second quarter of the year, led by the electronics sector and strong demand for hybrid and electric vehicles. This reinforces manufacturing’s central role in the current phase of trade expansion.
Prices set to rise and fuel growth
Prices for traded goods began to climb in the second quarter, with a sharper rise expected in the third, suggesting that price increases could play a bigger role than higher volumes in fuelling growth in the coming months.
Trade imbalances narrow
Global imbalances in trade in goods, which had widened in previous quarters, narrowed in the second quarter of 2025 following shifts in US trade policy.
China’s trade surplus edged lower, and the European Union’s surplus also declined, while deficits widened in Japan, India and the United Kingdom.
Outlook remains positive despite risks
UNCTAD’s nowcast points to continued growth in the third quarter, with the trade in goods expected to expand by about 2.5 percent and services by roughly 4 percent. On a rolling annual basis, growth remains robust – around 5 percent for goods and 6 percent for services.
Risks to the outlook include persistent uncertainty over US trade policy, escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed protectionist measures in response to global overcapacity. Still, stronger economic growth, possible monetary easing and resilient services trade are expected to support continued expansion.
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