GENEVA, Switzerland – Global shipping faces fragile growth, rising costs and mounting uncertainty as political tensions, shifting trade patterns, and reconfigured routes reshape maritime trade.
Global shipping, which carries over 80 percent of world trade, is under immense pressure, facing fragile growth, rising costs and mounting uncertainty.
After a modest 2.2 percent growth in 2024, maritime trade is expected to slow to just 0.5 percent in 2025, according to the Review of Maritime Transport 2025, published on 24 September by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Distances up and trade routes in flux
Political tensions, shifting trading patterns and reconfigured shipping lanes are reshaping the geography of maritime trade.
Ships that once passed through the Red Sea in days now sail for weeks around the Cape of Good Hope. Freight rates are high and volatile, supply chains are fragile and port disruption is becoming chronic.
Vessel rerouting pushed up ton-miles (the distance each ton of cargo travels) to a record 6 percent in 2024, nearly three times faster than trade volume growth. By May 2025, tonnage through the Suez Canal was still 70 percent below 2023 levels, while the Strait of Hormuz – through which 11percent of global trade and a third of seaborne oil pass – also faced disruption risks.
Measures announced by the United States and others, including new tariffs and targeted restrictions on port calls, are adding costs and uncertainty.
Energy shipping is also in transition: coal rose despite its longer-term decline, oil volumes stayed flat but took longer routes, and gas trade increased. Critical minerals – vital for batteries, renewable energy and the digital economy – are becoming a new source of tension. Competition to secure supplies and add value domestically are putting new demands on transport and logistics.
A new normal of volatile freight rates
Freight rate volatility has become the new normal. Container, bulk and tanker freight rates remained elevated and volatile in 2024 and 2025, swinging sharply amid geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts and supply–demand imbalances.
Container shipping was hit hard. Spot and charter rates neared COVID-19 peaks by mid-2024 before easing – but stayed far above pre-crisis levels. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaged 2,496 points in 2024, up 149 percent from 2023, with July spot rates reaching $3,600 per container.
Dry bulk freight rates surged in 2024 on strong coal, grain and fertiliser demand, Red Sea rerouting and limited fleet growth, before softening in 2025 as new capacity entered service. Tanker markets spiked in June 2025 amid increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Persistent high transport costs risk hitting developing countries hardest, especially small island developing states and least developed countries.
Emissions rise as routes lengthen
Longer routes also mean higher emissions. Shipping’s greenhouse gas emissions rose by 5 percent in 2024. Only 8 percent of the world fleet’s tonnage is equipped to use alternative fuels, and ship recycling rates remain low.
The International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework, to be considered for adoption in October 2025, would set the course toward net-zero by 2050 by introducing a global fuel standard and a carbon pricing mechanism for international shipping. Revenues generated could help fund a just transition, including in small island developing states and least developed countries.
The UNCTAD report warns that decarbonizing maritime transport will entail significant costs, including fleet renewal, port adaptation and alternative fuel infrastructure. Clear regulatory signals, greater investment and cooperation among governments, industry and financial actors will be essential to drive the transition.
Adaptation must be managed, inclusive and sustainable
Other profound transitions are also reshaping the sector, including automation and digitalisation, which promise efficiency but also heighten cyber risks.
Maritime transport has weathered stormy seas before, but never so many transitions at once. The sector will adapt. The question is whether adaptation will be managed or chaotic, inclusive or divisive, sustainable or merely survivable.
The report outlines priority actions, including the following:
- Stabilise trade policies to reduce uncertainty and keep supply chains flowing.
- Invest in sustainable, green and resilient infrastructure for ports and shipping.
- Promote digitalisation to improve efficiency and transparency while ensuring cybersecurity.
- Accelerate fleet renewal and modernisation to meet climate goals and promote sustainable ship recycling.
- Protect vulnerable economies from the worst impacts of higher shipping costs.
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